Tactics for tough times - Alan Hull

ASX Podcast: Tactics for tough times - Alan Hull


Presentation slides (PDF)

ASX podcasts - 2008 - ASX - Australian Securities Exchange

Sim,

Thanks for sharing.
btw, I think the presentation is brilliant.

http://www.asx.com.au/resources/podc...r_20080617.pdf

Cheers

Thanks for the charts and audio... would have liked to get there but wasn't able to.

Definitely one of the best thinkers I've come across - always get the feeling that for everything he says... there's a mountain of knowledge behind it... but he can simply things to their essence.

Good Post.

Traders and Investors will never agree so the following quotes from Alan sum it up:

"So if you’re trading shares then cash is king.
But if you have an income portfolio then it’s time to go shopping…hence Warren Buffet is running around with his cheque book.

Share traders must be prepared to change their trading tactics…the bull market is over.
If an income stock’s price goes lower then be prepared to ‘Dollar cost’ average it down.

In either case buy fundamentally sound defensive stocks with very manageable debt."

So one has to decide which of the above they are: Trader Vs Investor? Occasionally you find a person who is both and operate separate portfolios accordingly!

Me, I'm 100% an income investor nowadays. Gave up trading years ago because I like to earn income that continues regardless of whether I get out of bed or not. Essentially I'm lazy Plus I have met a hell of a lot more successful investors than I have traders!

As an experiment find very wealthy retiries and ask them how they got there.

Cheers - Gordon

If this chart means anything we should be buying when all ords is under 4500 points
Cheers

Attached Images

24 years chart.JPG (43.1 KB, 31 views)

Hi Bill, how do you work out 4500? Are you looking for a 50% retracement?

Regards,
Ilori

Something I'm a little unclear on, is Alan saying that his ActVest strategy is no longer sound in the current market?

I noticed in the audio he talked about IPL (Pivot) and seemed to dismiss it, yet that same stock could be (probably is) part of his ActVest strategy.

If the All Ords shows an uptrend according to MA crossover, should the ActVest strategy kick into action?

Appreciate your thoughts.

Regards,
Ilori

Ilori,

I was just looking at the chart and it's progression over the years and assumed that it will come down to what seems to be a logical level.
I know companies are more profitable these days and therefore should be worth more but at the end of the day a share is only worth what people are willing to pay.

All ords is around 5400 now so not long to go I guess (another -15%?).
Anyway, considering the economic problems we are facing a market turnaround at 4500 points would be good I think.

I say this because the price of oil is increasing our cost of living and inflation is likely to stay at current levels.
Even if the RBA drops int. rates a little the banks probably won't follow so the financial strain on family budgets will remain at high levels.
People will have no option than to cut spending further and this means lower company profits and possibly even lower share market prices.

btw, this is only an assumption, I have no hard evidence that the markets will go either way.

Cheers

Hi gang,

Another issue which may possibly be adding to distorting the upward trend in more recent years is that there is an enormous amount of money being placed in the sharemarket due to the attractiveness of super etc. A sizable amount of this ends up in Aussie shares which is a pretty small market in relative terms. Plus the mandate of many managed funds is that they have to have a certain percentage in Oz shares.

Add to this the likes of the Future Fund etc which I think is currently using State Street and Vanguard index funds to invest their money. Also , some Baby boomers (and there's a lot of them) are moving out of property and shifting it into Super (again often in shares) which is tax free at 60.

So perhaps for some years yet due to these factors the Aussie share market may buck trends of the past. Or maybe not! But again in my case it doesn't matter because of my focus on income and hence I couldn't care less about price volatility other than to top up when our favoured stocks price declines.

Cheers - Gordon

Why?
50% retracement is at 4757 (XJO).