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Chartists say markets may continue to fall

 
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Old 31-07-2008, 09:54 AM   #1 (permalink)
Sim
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Chartists say markets may continue to fall

Lateline Business - 30/07/2008: Chartists say markets may continue to fall

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While global stocks enjoyed a bounce today, those who rely on charting or technical analysis say there are no clear signs that the turbulence is ending. Some analysts say the markets may still have some way to fall and a recovery will not begin this calendar year.
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Old 31-07-2008, 10:19 AM   #2 (permalink)
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I guess they haven't read "A random walk down wall street"...

Why does the first guy have his eyes shut for a second each time he is talking to the camera?
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Old 31-07-2008, 04:29 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Hmmm.....
I would say that they probably read both :
‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’ and ‘A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street’ ...
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Old 31-07-2008, 06:04 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Charting is like looking in the rear vision mirror when driving a car
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Old 31-07-2008, 06:36 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Maybe their car is stuck in reverse?

It's the same with fundamental analysis, which also looks at past performance to make a judgement of what may happen in the future.
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Old 31-07-2008, 06:39 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by AsxBroker View Post
Maybe their car is stuck in reverse?

It's the same with fundamental analysis, which also looks at past performance to make a judgement of what may happen in the future.
actually fundamental analysis looks at the current value. If you look at the PE and its 30, then you know the current value is high, but if it has a value of 10, then you know the stock is cheaper. How ever you do need to look at future potential profits, are they expected to grow? remain the same or decline. Then you can decide if its worth 'paying up' for a higher PE stock.
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Old 31-07-2008, 07:39 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by crc_error View Post
Charting is like looking in the rear vision mirror when driving a car

Charting is based on defining psychology of all market participants.
If you can see it in the rear vision mirror, you must be a very ‘talented’ driver
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Old 31-07-2008, 08:49 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crc_error View Post
actually fundamental analysis looks at the current value. If you look at the PE and its 30, then you know the current value is high, but if it has a value of 10, then you know the stock is cheaper. How ever you do need to look at future potential profits, are they expected to grow? remain the same or decline. Then you can decide if its worth 'paying up' for a higher PE stock.
You are making several basic assumptions here - which may not be valid ... the first is that a PE of 30 is high and a PE of 10 is low. How would you know this? These aren't absolute values - they are only meaningful when taken in the context of historic values and comparing with other similar companies within the same industries.

If a particular type of stock historically sells for a particular PE ratio, then a stock which currently shows a lower PE ratio may well be considered cheaper ... even if that lower PE is still 30!

Fundamental analysis looks at historic information as well - it's about determining the relative value of a company compared to past values ... there is no magic formula which says "company X is worth $Y".
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