Managed Funds Navra NO LONGER an Income Fund ?

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by seaview, 5th Mar, 2007.

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  1. TPI

    TPI Well-Known Member

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    Sim, we might have to agree to disagree on this one too.

    Seaview, sorry, didn't mean to take over this thread!

    GSJ
     
  2. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    I don't think you've actually answered any of my questions ?
     
  3. TPI

    TPI Well-Known Member

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    OK, I am afraid you don't understand anything I am saying!

    GSJ
     
  4. coopranos

    coopranos Well-Known Member

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    GSJ

    I am honestly not sure what point you are trying to make, it kind of seems you are getting hung up on contrived scenarios...

    Do you want people to agree that it is a bad idea to leverage 100% into a risky/volatile investment returning 10% and the leveraging costs you 9%? Done, this is a terrible idea. I dont think you will find anyone that disagrees with you on this concept.

    What I would suggest is that you forget about such scenarios, as they are really pretty useless. Maybe even forget about the terms "income" and "growth", as you seem to be getting hung up on them. Use the term "investment return" instead. That way if you get 15% income, 10% income/5% growth, or 15% growth, your return is still 15%, the only difference being the tax treatment.

    What you do with that investment return is up to you.

    However your personal analysis of what constitutes too much risk or too much gearing is just that - your own personal analysis.

    You cannot just ignore the ability to reinvest income or other scenarios though.

    If you are trying to work out a specific situation or scenario, give it to us and lets see what we can do with it.
     
  5. TPI

    TPI Well-Known Member

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    Coopranos,

    Then why on page 6, and even earlier before, did you say this in the first place?:

    ???!!!

    'Absurd' and now 'contrived'!

    GSJ
     
  6. TPI

    TPI Well-Known Member

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    Does that mean you are an intelligent or skilled investor?, not necessarily - but your prayers certainly seem to have been answered.

    GSJ
     
  7. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Do you disagree that your 'contrived' scenario of:

    • 100% gearing
    • 9% interest
    • 10% income
    • 0% growth
    • capitalised interest
    • no reinvestment of income allowed

    ... is absurd ?
     
  8. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    So what would make me an intelligent or skilled investor ?
     
  9. seaview

    seaview Well-Known Member

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    Rubbish GSJ,

    Just because SIM has some higher risk more volatile growth funds does not mean he is either intelligent or lucky. (I think I just insulted you SIM, sorry) Anyway, I appreciate how SIM has benefited many on this forum by being transparent with his thoughts on investing and like many of us, I suspect he tries to spread his risk around a variety of growth and income funds. Neither one is wrong or right, just different strategies for different folks, ultimately depending on our investing goals, risk tolerance etc.

    Seaview
     
  10. Glebe

    Glebe Well-Known Member

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    Geez 130 replies on one managed fund.

    Can I start a new thread on Platinum Asia and get 130 replies also :confused:

    How about Hunter Hall

    How about Clime Capital

    How about 452 Capital

    geez!
     
  11. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    I'd be glad to talk to you about Platinum Asia ... feel free to start a new thread :D

    The others I have no experience with.
     
  12. coopranos

    coopranos Well-Known Member

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    I did not say that if I could make 1% in a high risk fund, I said if I could make 1%. If the 1% was a given, then I would do it.

    Again, if you actually have a point to make, make it so we can discuss it, rather than making blanket statements about contrived scenarios.
     
  13. unthreaded

    unthreaded Active Member

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    I'm new to this to begin with, and 130+ moves in an argument loses me.

    If I'm not mistaken this is a debate between strategies espoused by GSJ vs Others (Sorry I just havent got a handle on a principal respondent).

    Would it be possible for each side to give a basic synopsis of their positions at this point, ideally starting from their understanding of a "scratch" position.
     
  14. TryHard

    TryHard Well-Known Member

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    Actually in my case yes it does look attractive because :

    1. If I wasn't invested in it, my money would be earning nothing p.a. rather than 1% p.a
    2. NavraInvest means my money remains fairly liquid if I need it again at short notice
    3. The risk involved isn't high because of the conservative nature of the fund
    4. I couldn't care less about capital growth - as long as there is better than break even when I pay the interest bill on the LOC, and/or when I cash out, I'm happy
    5. I don't have to read about the sharemarket in order to know my money is invested in stocks that have been chosen for a reason by someone who knows what they are doing
    6. I can potentially make money in a declining market (yet to be fully experienced :) ) whereas I could do my dough invested in direct shares, even some blue chips

    Personally I think the risk of doing nothing comes with much worse consequences than the risk of NI not performing as well as some other potential investments (which may not meet criteria 2 and 3 and 6 from above)

    I think it would be worthwhile to list some other potential investments and compare historical and likely performance to NI provided the alternatives :
    a) Pay income quarterly
    b) Are relatively conservative and not invested in high risk companies
    c) Able to withdraw when money needed for other investments with minimal penalty

    That's my understanding of the benefits of NI - it plays a part in a balanced strategy, and its flexible. There would have been a day I'd have read comments like some on this thread and sat on my hands in fear because someone had pointed out there are risks involved in an investment. Luckily those days are gone, and the 20% returns (or future 1% or whatever) still get put in my bank account every quarter, and I happily spend money I would otherwise not have had.

    So maybe the, um, argument, could get down to tin tacks and list specific vehicles that are potentially better than NI. I'm still looking for one that meets all the criteria. We have some money in Platinum and Colonial now, to spread our exposure, but I've yet to be convinced they're better or worse than NI, but of course they show some good historical returns too.

    PS. and my usual disclaimer, I am a 'mum and dad' (just the dad bit, I'm not transgender!) investor that NI is specifically targetted at - hence my simplistic view on things :)
     
  15. iiinvestor

    iiinvestor Well-Known Member

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    GSJ:

    If I'm not mistaken, have you been talking about industrial property over at SS? I have an account over there but haven't posted because... ummm... I'm not sure.

    Anyway, some people have been talking about 10%+ yields from CP. What do you think about that for a good alternative? Personally, I don't know where in a capital city you get 10% yields. But if they were out there, I'd much rather the fundamentals of that than some technical trading gimmick. ;)

    How's your foray into industrial property going anyway?
     
  16. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Where is commercial/industrial property in the cycle right now ?

    I don't follow closely, so I'm not aware of whether yields are still falling, or whether they have started rising again - I know yields have been very low in recent years - wasn't sure whether there was a similar slowdown as we've seen in residential property.

    During the peak of the yield cycle it is possible (although not easy - depending on location) to get 10%+ yields (I was finding 15%+ yields in Adelaide 4-5 years ago), but there are quite a few risks with commercial/industrial property in that you may well find yourself without a tenant for an extended period of time ... which really hurts your average returns and your cashflow. Leverage is generally pretty low - although possibly not much lower than shares/funds.

    I'd be inclined to invest in property trusts (listed or even unlisted) before I went for direct commercial/industrial (unless I had a huge amount of capital to invest) ... the diversity should (in theory) see more consistency in income - even if it means slightly lower returns.
     
  17. iiinvestor

    iiinvestor Well-Known Member

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    Sim:

    I'm not really sure. I wouldn't think it would be ideal with macro factors starting to be questioned and business earnings starting to taper off.

    We own a bit of direct industrial in SW Sydney that supplements our other property quite well, but it would be a nightmare if they were vacated. It's a bit of a double-edged sword; they say it's best to invest in large properties so you don't have to deal with 'transitional' businesses, but then once they're vacated, it can be a pain to find another tenant. We've never had an issue, but they've been good times.

    Most CP I see in Sydney is based on sub-8% yields. But there's still talk of 10%+ on the other forums. I like the idea of industrial renos too. Some suburbs have really cheap sq meters and so if you make the place look respectable, you can turn up the $/sqm quite easily. We did one about two years ago, but when we put up the rent accordingly the tenant threatened to leave. We ended up with a compromise (he's still getting an awesome deal). :eek:

    As for LPTs, there seems to be so much talk of them being too expensive. Plus you have to wonder how much of an LPT they are and how much of a business they are... and how much the market is inflating prices. In theory an unstapled LPT should be priced at around NTA and return the rent. But these days they make 40% returns and are prices well above NTA. That would make me feel uneasy, but nothing some research couldn't fix.

    That latest SI article has outlined a couple of LPTs returning over 10%.

    Anyway, I'm off to the property expo. :D
     
  18. TPI

    TPI Well-Known Member

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    Hi everyone,

    Just a quick post now as I am short on time, Coopranos and Sim, sorry but I don't think we are getting anywhere. I've made my point several times and in different ways but obviously not getting through. It may be 'contrived', in that I created this example, but this is to illustrate and facilitate understanding of the basic idea behind this particular strategy. If you still think it is 'absurd', or not a realistic or possible scenario, then I really can't help you with further posts and I wish you well in your investments.

    iiinvestor
    , you are right on the money - this 'strategy' of 'leveraging into an income fund' - which is as you know is what I've been posting about - is far better suited for an 'asset class' or 'investment', broadly speaking, that involves commercial or industrial property...but that's another huge topic all-together, and has been discussed already on Somersoft.

    Yes, I too prefer the fundamentals of that, than some 'technical trading gimmick'!

    GSJ
     
  19. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    I think the point got lost in the detail and the scenarios.

    Let me go back and see if I can summarise what I think your point is.

    I think this is the basis of your argument all the way through ... that you shouldn't gear into a fund that has no prospect of "at least moderate growth" ... and that income is not enough to justify the investment.

    We seem to have gone around and around in circles arguing this point based on some assumptions you seem to have made:

    Assumption 1: There will be no growth from an income fund like NavraInvest.

    This is not true - and historical evidence clearly shows there to be some growth. However, that growth is likely to be fairly modest - and it depends on your situation as to whether this growth is "enough" for your needs. It's a subjective measure and depends on how your portfolio is constructed.

    Assumption 2: Capitalising interest won't work with an income fund.

    Not necessarily true. If you capitalise interest, then in order to maintain your LVR at a constant rate, you need to see your funds grow at the same percentage as your interest (ie. if you pay 8% interest, you need to get 8% growth to maintain your LVR). So, assuming you don't get that much growth from an income fund, you would need to supplement that from other sources. The obvious choice is from the income you receive from the fund.

    Let's say you get 2% growth, this means you need to put aside 6% of your income to cover the capitalised interest. If you don't get any growth at all - you need to put the full 8% (or whatever your interest cost is) into the loan to maintain the LVR.

    However, by taking a portfolio approach to your investing, this can be easily managed by including growth investments in your portfolio as well. The margin loan is shared between all your margined investments - so the LVR may well be maintained by other assets growing at a sufficient rate to cover the interest costs - thus freeing the income for other purposes.

    All this assumes that you need or want to maintain your LVR. I generally assume you do - for there will eventually come a point where you must maintain it, or face a margin call.

    Either way - you have to "pay" for the interest somehow - you either do it immediately from other sources of cash, or your capitalise it and use income returns to pay it, or you use growth to offset it.

    Assumption 3: if the the capital value of your initial investment falls significantly, then you would need a very high % income return to give you an equivalent absolute $ income return

    This is actually quite true - and why it is important to invest in a fund which holds fairly stable assets (eg blue chip shares). You want to minimise the chance of your capital being seriously eroded.

    Don't forget that growth funds are also subject to the same limitations - a sharp drop in the market could well see your investment returns drop significantly, indeed, there are very few funds that have been operating for more than 5 years which would NOT have seen a year of negative returns.

    At the end of the day though - short term fluctuations in capital value of your income fund is not a significant issue (assuming you aren't so highly margined that you face a margin call) ... the reason you invest in an income fund is for the income over the long term - it is generally not a short term investment. The capital value in the short term is not important - so long as there is a reasonable expectation of the value increasing again in the future to at least maintain your capital base.

    Assumption 4: You can't get more than 10% income from a fund like NavraInvest long term

    This assumption is just that - an assumption and an opinion.

    I can't refute or support it - we will only know with the benefit of hindsight.

    The only proof I can offer for performance is in the last 3+ years of trading history, which show significantly higher than 10% returns. This suggests nothing about future performance, but does show the potential. So, assuming you don't just spend this surplus, yet reinvest it in either the income fund, or in growth assets, or even just to pay down debt, or build a cash buffer - you should be able to cope with periods of only 10% returns or possibly less. It's about contingency planning and risk management.

    Any argument that insists that the fund may only ever return 10% from the day you invest in it are just as invalid as an argument that insists the fund may only ever return more than 20%. You can't know these things - but you are welcome to your opinion ... so long as you realise that it is just an opinion and don't pretend it to be fact.



    ... that'll do for now.

    Have I misunderstood any of your assumptions ?

    Do you dispute any of my responses ?
     
  20. coopranos

    coopranos Well-Known Member

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    GSJ

    It might also be beneficial if you let us know your strategy - what are you currently invested in, your gearing, etc.
    That way we might gain a better understanding of where you are coming from in case we have missed something that we can learn from.
    After all the purpose of the forum is so we can all put our heads together isnt it?
     

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