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Old 21-06-2008, 11:28 PM   #8 (permalink)
BV
Member
 
Posts: 955
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Sydney, NSW
Quote:
Originally Posted by ilori View Post
Hi Bill, how do you work out 4500? Are you looking for a 50% retracement?

Regards,
Ilori
Ilori,

I was just looking at the chart and it's progression over the years and assumed that it will come down to what seems to be a logical level.
I know companies are more profitable these days and therefore should be worth more but at the end of the day a share is only worth what people are willing to pay.

All ords is around 5400 now so not long to go I guess (another -15%?).
Anyway, considering the economic problems we are facing a market turnaround at 4500 points would be good I think.

I say this because the price of oil is increasing our cost of living and inflation is likely to stay at current levels.
Even if the RBA drops int. rates a little the banks probably won't follow so the financial strain on family budgets will remain at high levels.
People will have no option than to cut spending further and this means lower company profits and possibly even lower share market prices.

btw, this is only an assumption, I have no hard evidence that the markets will go either way.

Cheers
__________________
Bill

Information posted here is given in good faith. If in doubt do your own research and get professional advice.
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