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Old 18-08-2008, 09:49 AM   #31
The Rule of 72
 
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Old 18-08-2008, 09:59 AM   #32
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Old 18-08-2008, 10:00 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by crc_error View Post
I see what your trying to say, but Narva is not a capital guaranteed investment either. The unit price can go up and down as well. So there would be no difference in selling down units when unit price is low in a growth fund, compared with Narva paying out a dividend when unit price is low.
Actually there is a huge difference.

Distributions are paid out of profits, not out of capital.

Selling down units from growth fund comes from capital. In theory, you should have more capital than from an income fund - but if you experience negative capital growth, selling down units for cashflow compounds the effect of the loss quite dramatically.

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Narva is not immune to loosing money. Who would have thought Centro would do what it did! They are allot bigger than Narva and would have been considered as safe as houses before their bust.
That's not an accurate comparison at all.

Centro is a listed property trust - they invest in real estate and used extremely high levels of leverage to get their returns. When their credit crunch caused them problems with debt refinancing and caused their assets to be revalued - that's when they lost lots of money.

Navra is a fund manager which invests in 20+ of Australia's largest and safest shares. They do careful due dilligence on what they hold, and if one went under, you wouldn't lose the lot - and Navra would most likely not have held them in the first place if they were at risk (eg high debt levels). Navra do not use leverage themselves - they have no direct exposure to interest rate fluctuations, nor to credit availability issues.
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Old 18-08-2008, 10:08 AM   #34
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I'm surprised people here are so against diversification!

"Dont put all your eggs in one basket" should be a fundamental basic in anything one does!
There's a huge difference between various levels of diversification.

What most people here would tell you is that if you diversify too far, then all you will ever do is achieve average results (or less than average, after fees are taken into account).

If you don't believe that you can ever achieve better than average, then you may as well only ever invest in the index.

I don't think anyone would ever suggest putting all of your money in the one share.

Don't forget that managed funds and listed managed investments will typically invest in a wide range of shares - there's a natural level of diversification there.
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Old 18-08-2008, 10:09 AM   #35
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Old 18-08-2008, 10:19 AM   #36
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Old 18-08-2008, 10:27 AM   #37
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Sim, what do you consider as Australias safest shares? Is there a such thing?

Do you think all those people who invested in Enron thought their investment was safe? What about those who invested into Pyramid Building society? Or HIH? Westpoint?
You can easily do due-diligence about a listed company by having a close look at their annual report. They have to publish full details about debt levels, income and other information.

Safety is a relative thing - but it does basically come down to what is called fundamental analysis. Looking at the way a company is run, its management structure and history, debt levels, income projections, capitalisation levels, and such.

The key is that all the examples you listed were isolated events, and in every case there were criminal proceedings and convictions for fraud, deception and other crimes. They were single companies who went under due to dodgy management practices and illegal activities. In many cases, some careful due diligence should have smelled a rat, but in any case - they would have been just single shares in what is a multi-share portfolio.
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Old 18-08-2008, 11:37 AM   #38
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Old 18-08-2008, 11:58 AM   #39
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I hope we are not to heavy in Australian Shares! Which largely are linked to commodities!
Huh? Australian mining and resources shares - plus some of the engineering and other services companies ... are linked to commodities, and this has certainly helped with our recent sharemarket boom.

However, these are not the only part of the Australian sharemarket - indeed, resources had struggled for years before the recent boom, yet the market managed to do quite well.

Here is a list of Australia's top 50 companies by market cap:

I've highlighted the ones which are directly involved in the resources or energy sectors ... and some of these have only actually come in to the top 50 as a result of the boom.


Bhp Billiton Ltd .... Materials
Cmnwlth Bk Of Aust .. Financials
Telstra Corp Ltd .... Telecommunication Services
Westpac Bkg Corp .... Financials
Natl Australia Bk ... Financials
Aust & Nz Bank Grp .. Financials
Rio Tinto Limited ... Materials
Woolworths Ltd ...... Consumer Staples
Wesfarmers Ltd ...... Consumer Staples
Westfield Group ..... Financials
Woodside Petroleum .. Energy
Csl ................. Health Care
Qbe Ins Group ....... Financials
St George Bank Ltd .. Financials
Macquarie Gp Ltd .... Financials
Origin Energy ....... Energy
Amp Limited ......... Financials
Suncorp-Metway Ltd .. Financials
Brambles Ltd ........ Industrials
Newcrest Mining ..... Materials
Santos Limited ...... Energy
Fosters Group ....... Consumer Staples
Fortescue Metals G .. Materials
Incitec Pivot ....... Materials
Orica Limited ....... Materials
Stockland ........... Financials
Insurance Aust Grp .. Financials
Bluescope Steel ..... Materials
Transurban Group .... Industrials
Qantas Airways ...... Industrials
Agl Energy .......... Utilities
Asx Ltd ............. Financials
Worleyparsons Ltd ... Energy
Leighton Holdings ... Industrials
Macquarie Infras G .. Industrials
Oz Minerals Ltd ..... Materials
Alumina Ltd ......... Materials
Onesteel ............ Materials
Lihir Gold Ltd ...... Materials
News Corporation .... Consumer Discretionary
Amcor Limited ....... Materials
Telecom Corp Of Nz .. Telecommunication Services
Goodman Intl Ltd .... Financials
Dexus Property Gp ... Financials
Oil Search Ltd ...... Energy
Sims Group Ltd. ..... Materials
Tabcorp Holdings L .. Consumer Discretionary
Sonic Healthcare .... Health Care
Toll Hldgs Ltd ...... Industrials
Axa Asia Pac Hlds ... Financials
Computershare Ltd ... Information Technology



Fundamentally, resources stocks are quite volatile - they always have been, since they are are largely linked to commodity prices rather than intrinsic value.
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Old 18-08-2008, 12:29 PM   #40
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Actually there is a huge difference.

Distributions are paid out of profits, not out of capital.
Hey Sim, I’ve been thinking about your post and I don’t quite understand the difference.

As I see it, if you sell a growth fund, you’re converting capital to cash. Navra also converts capital to cash.

Regards – Ben
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